Palestinians return to northern Gaza following ceasefire deal. Source: @ahmed_darabi
At a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4, Donald Trump proposed that the U.S. expel Gaza Palestinians and assume long-term ownership of the Gaza Strip.
Trump’s bid—loosely presented as a suggestion to “clean out [the] whole thing”—has been was condemned by Palestinians, Arab states, and the international community. The presidency of the Palestinian Authority (PA) refused resettlement or an “alternative homeland,” designating such plans ethnic cleansing. Egypt and Jordan’s foreign ministries have also rejected proposals of Palestinian displacement (Associated Press, CNN); both countries are predicted to meet strong domestic opposition if they accept refugees at such a scale. Esmail Baqaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, likewise labelled the proposal “ethnic cleansing in disguise” (Middle East Eye), and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called any resettlement plans “unacceptable,” arguing that peace can only be achieved if the people of Gaza are allowed self-governance (Reuters).
The expulsion plan would achieve the fondest dreams of the Israeli far right, including ministers Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and Netanyahu. The Biden Administration had also sought to move Palestinians out of Gaza starting in October 2023, apparently including offers to pay Egypt to accept refugees, but were rebuffed by Egypt’s refusal to cooperate.
On January 19th, 2025, with the United States, Qatar, and Egypt as mediators, Israel and Hamas declared a ceasefire deal that put a temporary end to the 15-month war that ravaged the Gaza Strip. Yet life has hardly reverted back to normal for Palestinians. Almost ninety percent—some 1.9 million people—of the Gaza Strip’s population has been displaced; half of Gaza’s infrastructure is either damaged or destroyed.
All the parties involved hold starkly different visions for the future of the Gaza Strip. The first hurdle of disagreement comes in the continued uncertainty of whether the second phase of the ceasefire will be executed—Trump has claimed there are “no guarantees that the peace is going to hold” (Associated Press). Before the announcement of the deal, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had faced increasing international pressure to put an end to the extensive bloodshed that many deemed genocide (Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch); Israeli citizens continue to push Netanyahu to reach a deal that guarantees the release of all hostages remaining in Gaza.
However, Netanyahu and other far-right members of his cabinet remain convinced Israel has not achieved its military objectives in Gaza—namely, the destruction of Hamas’ military capabilities—and many politicians have threatened to resign and destabilize the Israeli government if the war does not resume after the first phase of the ceasefire concludes in early March. Gayil Talshir, professor of politics at Hebrew University, suggests that a return to war would hold a political advantage for Netanyahu, arguing that “as long as he continues the war, Israel does not go to election… and Netanyahu remains in power” (NPR). Further, an end to the war would increase focus on Netanyahu’s domestic legal cases, in which he has been indicted on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. The trial involves three criminal cases; if convicted, he would lose his office and could face jail time.
Netanyahu’s interest in reigniting Israeli-Saudi relations has also been met by controversy in the Knesset, as it comes on the Saudi condition of the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is fervently opposed by Israeli political extremists. It remains unlikely that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity during the most recent war will have any consequence for his leadership.
Yet neither Netanyahu nor the Israeli government cannot alone dictate the shape of the Middle East. As Israel is reliant on U.S. support, the Trump administration has assumed a dominant role in determining what will happen to Gaza both during the ceasefire and beyond it. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff was pivotal in reaching the first phase, and Trump intends to see the deal through to a Saudi peace deal. Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians to neighboring Arab countries as Gaza is rebuilt has been widely discussed; Trump has met with both Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and King Abdullah II of Jordan to urge both nations to accept more Palestinian refugees, indicating that resettlement could involve “a million and a half people” (Associated Press). Upon taking office for the second time, Trump has also reversed the Biden administration’s sanctions on Israeli settlers, a decision endorsed by Smotrich, a leader of the settlement movement.
Israel, Hamas, the United States, and Arab leaders have also met disagreement over the future of governance in Gaza. Despite having suffered the loss of several top officers, Hamas has recruited between 10-15 thousand fighters since the start of the war, nearly equivalent to the number of militants it has lost (Reuters). Consequently, Hamas’ persisting grip on power in Gaza continues to pose a threat to Israel, as well as Israeli and U.S. politicians alike who refuse to allow the militant group to remain in governance. However, since Hamas will be functionally incapable of rebuilding the damage wrought upon Gaza without foreign assistance—which it will almost certainly not receive—it is possible the group will cede power to alternative Palestinian leadership; Hamas envoys have expressed willingness to relinquish civilian governance in Gaza—possibly to politically independent technocrats—but intend to maintain their military wing (Associated Press, New York Times).
Currently, foreign security contractors are assuming the responsibilities vacated by withdrawing Israeli troops; the most popular approach among Israeli officials is the possibility of Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, expanding this initiative by offering larger public and financial support. However, it is likely these nations would require the support of the PA to do so. Alternatively, PA President Mahmoud Abbas says the PA is ready to assume “full responsibility of Gaza” (Al Jazeera), but Israel’s leaders largely reject the body as corrupt and functionally incompetent.
Regardless of whose leadership it falls under, at the forefront of Hamas and Arab leaders’ priorities are the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the provision of support to its incapacitated systems and beleaguered population. Estimates suggest rebuilding Gaza could cost around $50 billion, and that it would take 350 years to recover Gaza to its 2022 GDP (United Nations). Human development in Gaza has likewise been set back by 69 years, while at least 2.61 million people in the State of Palestine have been newly plunged into poverty (UNDP). Shelley Culbertson, a senior researcher at the RAND think tank, predicts reconstruction efforts will need to be largely funded by the U.S., European Union, and wealthy Gulf states like Qatar; however, these efforts may be impeded by factors like Israel’s ‘dual use’ import restrictions on materials necessary for reconstruction, and are likely to take decades to fulfill—significantly longer than the 5 years afforded in the third phase of the ceasefire agreement (NPR, Reuters).
The immediate needs of Palestinians in Gaza also remain an urgent issue; in the first phase, Israel has agreed to increase the level of aid entering Gaza to 600 trucks per day—up from the 40-50 trucks per day seen in the final months of the war (United Nations). However, a recent Israeli ban on the Palestinian aid agency UNRWA’s operations across the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), alongside Trump’s withdrawal of funding to UNRWA and his efforts to dismantle USAID, could cripple humanitarian relief efforts in the Gaza Strip. UNRWA provides essential healthcare, relief, and other essential services to Gaza and other areas of the OPT, while USAID funds food assistance, economic recovery and development, and disease prevention, among other functions; former USAID contractor Alex Smith says the agency’s dismantling would be “devastating” for Gaza (ABC).
The reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will necessitate cooperation that transcends political and historical rifts; as world powers concern themselves with matters of finances and governance, the international community cannot overlook the singular factor that has always defined Gaza’s survival and culture of persistence: its people.
by Lila Li